Bayesian Correlation Prediction Model between Hydrogen-Induced Cracking in Structural Members

Background: A quantitative model was developed and applied for analyzing the correlation between hydrogen-induced corrosion cracking in both main cable wires and degraded stiffening of the girders of a cable suspension bridge, considering maintenance effects across time and space. Method: Bayesian inference is applied for predicting the correlations among the wires in the main cables owed to hydrogen-induced cracking (HIC) in the cable wires of a steel bridge, by using the improved hierarchical Bayesian models proposed here. Results: The simulated risk prediction under decreased strength of cable wires, due to the corrosion cracking, yields posterior distributions based on prior distributions and likelihoods. The Bayesian inference model can be applied to the design and maintenance of highly corroded and correlated components Data are updated through analyzed information from previous crack steps. A numerical example including not only reliability indices but also probabilities of failure for cable wires, damaged by HIC, is then presented. Compared with a conventional linear prediction model, the one herein developed provides highly improved convergence and closeness to the analyzed data. Conclusion: The proposed model can be used as a diagnostic or prognostic prediction tool for the performance of corroded bridge cable wires with crack propagation, allowing the development of maintenance plans for mechanical components and the overall structural system