The Future Of The Republican Party: 2022, 2024, And Beyond

This Hoover Institution essay considers the future of the Republican Party in both the near term—the 2022 and 2024 elections—and in the longer term. The first section traces changes in the Republican Party over the period 1980 to 2021. The second section uses polling data from a 2021 Hoover YouGov survey to examine a wide variety of issues to compare where self-identified Republican voters stand on issues relative to the average voter in the larger electorate to help us better understand how such issues might affect the 2022 and 2024 elections. The third section, also drawing from the Hoover YouGov survey, considers the effect of President Donald Trump on the future of the Republican Party. The focus here is on Trump's popularity, especially how his endorsement of candidates or lack thereof might affect nominations and, ultimately, election results over the next two national elections