Altitudinal genetic variation among native Pinus patula provenances: performance in two locations, seed zone delineation and adaptation to climate change

To select the genetic source of Pinus patula Shiede and Deppe seed best adapted to different native zones for reforestation, seedlings of 12 provenances native to a selected altitudinal gradient in Oaxaca, southern Mexico, were planted on two sites at contrasting altitudes (high 3000 m above sea level (masl) and low, 2500 masl) within the species natural distribution, and tested for growth in height at age 18, 24 and 36 months. Differences among provenances and between sites showed significance (p < 0.05). Seedling growth showed a climatic and altitudinal pattern, in which seedlings from populations originating in low-middle altitudes had higher growth than populations originating in high altitudes, and from the extreme low altitude limit. Results were used to delineate climatic and altitudinal seed zones for contemporary and future climate zones in the decade centered in year 2030, using the average results of six climate-emissions scenarios. The results indicate that splitting the region into four seed zones is appropriate under contemporary climate scenarios with the following altitude limits: Zone 1, from 2300 to 2500 masl; Zone 2, 2500 to 2700 masl; Zone 3, 2700 to 2900 masl and Zone 4 from 2900 to 3100 masl. The equivalence on climatic intervals was also defined for mean annual temperature, precipitation and an annual aridity index (AAI). Values of contemporary AAI occurring at a given altitude by year 2030 were determined, with results suggesting that populations should be shifted 200 to 250 m attitudinally upward, through a program of assisted migration, to realign them to the future climate for which they are adapted