Multi-Criteria Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Application To The California\u27S Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Problem

Multi-criteria decision making problems are often associated with trade-offs between performances of the available alternative solutions under the considered decision making criteria. These problems become more complex when uncertainty is associated. This paper applies a Monte-Carlo multi-criteria decision making method for solving the California\u27s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta problem in which the best alternative for exporting water from the Delta should be selected based on two main criteria, namely the economic cost and environmental performance. To deal with the uncertainty involved, the stochastic decision making problem is converted into numerous deterministic problems through a Monte-Carlo selection. Each deterministic problem is then solved using a range of multi-criteria decision making methods. The overall winning probabilities of the alternatives under each method are calculated and compared with the results obtained in previous studies which used conflict resolution methods, namely, non-cooperative game theory, fall-back bargaining, and social choice rules to suggest optimal solutions for the Delta problem. © 2012 ASCE