The Future Of Simulation

I argue that, in the coming decades, the conception of simulation will undergo a metamorphosis as the fundamental assumptions about what constitutes simulation evolve under the driving force of progressive technological innovation. The primary stimulus for development will come from the need to explore all processes through which humans interact with technology. Such future interaction will find operators working on representations of task spaces, presented via diverse forms of sensory display (see Mouloa, Gilson, and Hancock, 2003). As the linkage between these display representations and actual system configurations will be contingent solely upon the software connections-and given that the metaphor for representation will be judged by its operational effectiveness, not the degree to which it replicates the appearance of the actual system-the difference between what is simulation and what is actual operation will disappear. The definition of simulation in such circumstances will depend solely on whether the operator actually effects change in the real-world system or is alternatively using, evaluating, or training at the time on exactly the same display connected to an electronic surrogate. In multipleoperator, multiple-system configurations, even this criterion will eventually fail to hold any permanent distinction because momentary control of the action affecting the system will be passed between individuals at different times. At this juncture, simulation will have passed the Turing Test for reality