Theorising theories of change in international development

Theories of change (ToCs) are development tools that describe how a certain set up of conditions and actions leads to producing specific results. They are used to design, monitor, evaluate, and scale interventions and are increasingly required by both donor and research agencies. In this paper, we explore the links between theories of change and actual social scientific theories about change, which have not been explored in academic literature. We make three essential contributions. First, we explain how the rising interest in evidence-based policy fuelled the evolution of development management tools, including Logit Models, Log Frames and theories of change. Second, we argue that the narrow understanding of ‘research evidence’ resulted in scientific contributions being limited to conducting experimental evaluations (RCTs) meant to test and validate the projects’ theories of change. This we criticise as both methodologically unsound and epistemologically limiting. Third, we introduce alternative sources of ‘evidence’ that credit the social science theories and methods and engage meaningfully with local stakeholders (target communities and implementing staff)