Surveillance of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for 3 Countries

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: No consensus exists on adequate surveillance of conservatively managed unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs). We aimed to determine optimal MRI surveillance strategies for the growth of UIAs using cost-effectiveness analysis. A secondary aim was to develop a clinical tool for personalizing UIA surveillance. METHODS: We designed a microsimulation model from a health care perspective simulating 100,000 55-year-old women to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a lifetime horizon in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, using literature-derived model parameters. Country-specific costs and willingness-to-pay thresholds ($100,000/QALY for the United States, £30,000/QALY for the United Kingdom, and €80,000/QALY for the Netherlands) were used. Lifetime costs and QALYs were annually discounted at 3% for the United States, 3.5% for the United Kingdom, or 4% (costs) and 1.5% (QALYs) for the Netherlands. Strategies were no follow-up surveillance, follow-up with MRI in the first and fifth year after UIA discovery, every 5 years, every 2 years, or annually, or immediate intervention (i.e., clipping or coiling). Using the microsimulation model, we developed a tool for personalizing UIA surveillance for men and women, with different ages and varying aneurysm characteristics. Uncertainty in the input parameters was modeled with probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Among 55-year-old women, 2,222 individuals in the United States, 1,910 in the United Kingdom, and 2,040 in the Netherlands needed to undergo an annual MRI scan to prevent 1 case of subarachnoid hemorrhage per year. No surveillance MRI was most cost-effective in the United States (in 47% of the simulations) and United Kingdom (in 54% of simulations), whereas annual MRI was most cost-effective in the Netherlands (in 53% of simulations). In the United States and United Kingdom, annual surveillance or surveillance in the first and fifth year after discovery was cost-effective in patients