Incremental prognostic value of acute serum biomarkers for functional outcome after traumatic brain injury (CENTER-TBI): an observational cohort study

Background: Several studies have reported an association between serum biomarker values and functional outcome following traumatic brain injury. We aimed to examine the incremental (added) prognostic value of serum biomarkers over demographic, clinical, and radiological characteristics and over established prognostic models, such as IMPACT and CRASH, for prediction of functional outcome. Methods: We used data from the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) core study. We included patients aged 14 years or older who had blood sampling within 24 h of injury, results from a CT scan, and outcome assessment according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) at 6 months. Amounts in serum of six biomarkers (S100 calcium-binding protein B, neuron-specific enolase, glial fibrillary acidic protein, ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase L1 [UCH-L1], neurofilament protein-light, and total tau) were measured. The incremental prognostic value of these biomarkers was determined separately and in combination. The primary outcome was the GOSE 6 months after injury. Incremental prognostic value, using proportional odds and a dichotomised analysis, was assessed by delta C-statistic and delta R2 between models with and without serum biomarkers, corrected for optimism with a bootstrapping procedure. Findings: Serum biomarker values and 6-month GOSE were available for 2283 of 4509 patients. Higher biomarker levels were associated with worse outcome. Adding biomarkers improved the C-statistic by 0·014 (95% CI 0·009–0·020) and R2 by 4·9% (3·6–6·5) for predicting GOSE compared with demographic, clinical, and radiological characteristics. UCH-L1 had the greatest incremental prognostic value. Adding biomarkers to established prognostic models resulted in a relative increase in R2 of 48–65% for IMPACT and 30–34% for CRASH prognostic models. Interpretation: Serum biomarkers have incremental prognostic value for functional outcome after traumatic brain injury. Our findings support integration of biomarkers—particularly UCH-L1—in established prognostic models