Extinction learning as pretrauma vulnerability factor of posttraumatic stress: a replication study

Background: Learning tasks have been used to predict why some, and not others, develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after exposure to a traumatic event. There is some evidence from prospective studies in high risk profession samples that reduced extinction learning might represent a marker or even a vulnerability factor for PTSD development. Objective: Since the evidence is scarce, the aim of this study was to perform a conceptual replication of an earlier prospective study, testing whether pretrauma extinction learning predicts later PTSD symptom severity. Method: A sample of 529 fire fighters performed a conditioning task at baseline and filled out questionnaires to assess PTSD symptom severity and neuroticism. At six and 12 months follow- up, exposure to stressful events and PTSD symptom severity were measured. Results: Results indicate that previous findings were not replicated: although reduced extinction learning was associated with higher PTSD symptom severity at baseline, extinction learning did not predict PTSD symptom severity at follow-up. Only PTSD symptom severity at baseline and stressor severity predicted PTSD symptom severity at follow-up. Conclusions: Since earlier findings on the predictive value of pre-trauma extinction learning on PTSD symptom severity were not replicated, extinction learning might not be a general risk factor PTSD for all individuals. More prospective studies including multiple factors seem needed to unravel the complex relationships of these factors influencing PTSD development