Regional Soybean Acreage Response Analysis and Projections for 1974

Regional acreage response equations were developed to measure the impact of price, government programs, and lagged acreage on harvested soybean acreage. Effective prices for soybeans, corn, cotton, and oats were computed incorporating market prices, support prices and the main supply increasing or decreasing effects of allotments, diversion payments and set-aside provisions. Special attention was given to the impact on harvested soybean acreage of the Feed Grain Programs of 1961-70. The equations were developed to permit projections of soybean acreage based on data available through March of the current year. For the period 1948 to 1978, the model explains 99 percent of the variation in soybean acreage, and for the period 1966-73, projections averaged within three-fourth million acres of actual harvested acreage