Forecasting spring flow time series

The paper deals with a statistical analysis, carried out to define the underlying reason of some of the damage observed in many buildings of a southern Italian town. Engineering considerations, substantiated by specific measurements, attributed them to the lowering of the groundwater table in the area below the building locations. Due to two coinciding events which occurred in the preceding years, i.e. a persistent drought and the start up of a system of wells, it was not possible to define the cause of the former phenomenon. As shutting down the wells could generate additional problems, an accurate picture of the whole situation was necessary, before taking any action. By taking advantage of some fragmentary databelonging to the flow of a spring located in the area and on the basis of the knowledge of the rainfall data recorded in the Italian hydrographic service directory, two models have been developed which reproduce the spring flow time series in relation to the rainfall recorded in the surrounding area. By comparing the spring flow predictions with the actual data it has been possible to highlight the main role played by the wells