Prognostic Model for Predicting Survival in Patients with Disease Recurrence Following Radical Cystectomy

Background: Although the natural history of urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) from radical cystectomy (RC) to disease recurrence (DR) has been investigated intensively, the course of patients who have experienced DR after RC for UCB remains poorly understood. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of the Bajorin criteria that consists of two risk factors: Karnofsky performance status (KPS) and the presence of visceral metastases (VMs) in patients with DR after RC for UCB. Furthermore, to identify additional factors associated with cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and thus build a multivariable model to predict survival after DR. Design, setting, and participants: We identified 967 patients with UCB who underwent RC at 17 centers between 1979 and 2012 and experienced DR. Of these, 372 patients had complete data we used for analysis. Outcomes measurements and statistical analysis: Univariable Cox regressions analysis was performed. We used a forward stepwise selection process for our final multivariable model. Results and limitations: Within a median follow-up of 18 mo, 266 patients died of disease. Cancer-specific survival at 1 yr was 79%, 76%, and 47% for patients with no (n= 105), one (n= 180), and two (n= 87) risk factors (p< 0.001; c-index: 0.604). On multivariable analyses, we found that KPS <80%, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists score, anemia, leukocytosis, and shorter time to DR (all p values