Budget transparency and budget outcomes of local units: comparison of Croatian regions

Regionalne razlike prepoznate su kao jedna od prepreka vođenju zdrave ekonomske politike. Cilj ovog rada bio je proučiti razlike među regijama Republike Hrvatske (RH) koje su definirane područnim uredima Porezne uprave (Sjeverna Hrvatska, Središnja Hrvatska, Istočna Hrvatska, Jadranska Hrvatska, Dalmacija i Grad Zagreb) te razlike između lokalnih jedinica unutar svake regije u okviru proračunske transparentnosti i proračunskih ishoda. Ispitivala se i statistička značajnost utjecaja ekonomskih varijabli na proračunsku transparentnost lokalnih jedinica u pojedinim hrvatskim regijama. Proračunska transparentnost bila je izražena Indeksom otvorenosti lokalnih proračuna (Open Local Budget Indeks - OLBI). Deskriptivnom analizom ustanovljeno je kako regije Sjeverna Hrvatska, Dalmacija i Istočna Hrvatska bilježe prosječno najnižu razinu transparentnosti i najlošije proračunske ishode. Suprotno tome, Grad Zagreb je regija koja je svih godina jedina imala odlične proračunske ishode te najvišu moguću razinu proračunske transparentnosti. Poissonovim regresijskim modelima usporedili su se rezultati dobiveni iz podataka 2017. i 2019. Godine 2017. dobio se pozitivan statistički značajan utjecaj direktnog duga po stanovniku (DEBT) na razinu proračunske transparentnosti (OLBI) u Dalmaciji te pozitivan statistički značajan utjecaj poreza po stanovniku (TAX) na OLBI u Istočnoj Hrvatskoj. To su zapravo regije čije su lokalne jedinice u razdoblju od 2014. do 2020., imale najnižu prosječnu razinu proračunske transparentnosti. S druge strane, godine 2019. niti jedna od odabranih ekonomskih varijabli nije imala statistički značajan utjecaj na razinu proračunske transparentnosti, u niti jednoj regiji. Ustanovljeno je kako statistički značajan utjecaj odabranih ekonomskih varijabli na razinu proračunske transparentnosti s godinama nestaje. Razlog tome može biti povećanje broja lokalnih jedinica koje objavljuju sve više podataka. Pomoću Poissonove regresije pokazano je da se razina proračunske transparentnosti statistički značajno povećala 2019. u usporedbi s 2017. Zaključak je kako razina proračunske transparentnosti hrvatskih lokalnih jedinica raste iz godine u godinu te se zato smanjuju razlike među njima, u kontekstu razine proračunske transparentnosti, a utjecaj se gubi.Regional differences are recognized as one of the obstacles to conducting a sound economic policy. The aim of this work was to study the differences between the regions of the Republic of Croatia defined by the regional offices of the Tax Administration (Northern Croatia, Central Croatia, Eastern Croatia, Adriatic Croatia, Dalmatia and the City of Zagreb) and the differences between local units within each region within the framework of the budget transparency and budgetary outcomes. The statistical significance of the influence of economic variables on the budget transparency of local units in Croatian regions was also examined. Budget transparency was expressed by the Open Local Budget Index (OLBI). Through descriptive analysis, it was established that the regions of Northern Croatia, Dalmatia and Eastern Croatia record on average the lowest level of transparency and the worst budget outcomes. On the contrary, the City of Zagreb is the only region that has had excellent budget results and the highest possible level of budget transparency in all years. Poisson regression models were used to compare the results obtained from the data of 2017 and 2019. In 2017, there was a positive statistically significant impact of direct debt per capita (DEBT) on the level of budget transparency (OLBI) in Dalmatia, and a positive statistically significant impact of taxes per capita (TAX) on OLBI in Eastern Croatia. These are actually the regions in which local units had the lowest average level of budget transparency in the period from 2014 to 2020. On the other hand, in 2019, none of the selected economic variables had a statistically significant impact on the level of budget transparency in any region. It was found that the statistically significant influence of selected economic variables on the level of budget transparency disappears over the years. The reason for this may be the increase in the number of local units that publish more and more data. Using Poisson regression, it was shown that the level of budget transparency increased statistically significantly in 2019 compared to 2017. The conclusion was that the level of budget transparency of Croatian local units is increasing from year to year, and therefore the differences between them are decreasing, in the context of the level of budget transparency, and the influence is being lost