Roadmap for climate transition of the building and construction industry – a supply chain analysis including primary production of steel and cement

Sweden has, in line with the Paris agreement, committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2045. Emissions arising from manufacturing, transporting and processing of construction materials to buildings and infrastructure account for approximately one fifth of Sweden’s annual CO2 emissions. This work provides a roadmap with an analysis of different pathways of technological developments in the supply chains of the buildings and construction industry, including primary production of steel and cement. By matching short-term and long-term goals with specific technology solutions, these pathways make it possible to identify key decision points and potential synergies, competing goals and lock-in effects. The analysis combines quantitative analysis methods, including scenarios and stylized models, with participatory processes involving relevant stakeholders in the assessment process. The roadmap outline material and energy flows associated with different technical and strategical choices and explores interlink-ages and interactions across sectors. The results show that it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions associated with construction of buildings and transport infrastructure by 50 % to 2030 and reach close to zero emissions by 2045, while indicating that strategic choices with respect to process technologies, energy carriers and the availability of biofuels, CCS and zero CO2 electricity may have different implications on energy use and CO2 emissions over time. The results also illustrate the importance of intensifying efforts to identify and manage both soft (organisation, knowledge sharing, competence) and hard (technology and costs) barriers and the importance of both acting now by implementing available measures (e.g. material efficiency and material/fuel substitution measures) and actively planning for long-term measures (low-CO2 steel or cement). Unlocking the full potential of the range of emission abatement measures will require not only technological innovation but also innovations in the policy arena and efforts to develop new ways of cooperating, coordinating and sharing information between actors