Assessment of district heating and cooling systems transition with respect to future changes in demand profiles and renewable energy supplies

District energy systems are about to shift towards closer temperature configurations, i.e. low-temperature district heating and high-temperature district cooling. Challenges and benefits of these transitions are mostly analyzed from a perspective of current energy demand and supply scenarios while the influence from future changes in these domains remains unknown. Based on a representative residential community in the Nordic district heating context, centralized district heating and cooling (DHC), ultra-low temperature district heating (ULTDH), and bi-directional fifth generation 5GDHC systems were assessed from technical, economical, and environmental aspects. Moreover, the applications of thermal energy storage (TES) and their roles in the future DHC systems were also investigated. The assessment was done by a generalized methodology framework, integrating the future changes, multiple operation scenarios modellings and system design optimizations. Results suggest that in the future low-energy building stock, the increased cooling demand makes the 5GDHC system the most economically attractive choice. In the supply side, with a 50% share of wind power in the future national grid, the electricity prices can make 5GDHC and ULTDHC either cost-saving or more expensive compared to the central DHC system dependent on if nuclear plants are decommissioned or not. Besides, with increasing power production from VRE, the limited application of TES for active shift of electricity demand is found when a system’s heat-to-power ratio is high. The methodology framework can be applied to similar systems to increase the understandings on system transitions