Utjecaj naftnog šoka na vanjskotrgovinsku bilancu Europske unije

Nafta, danas poznata i kao crno zlato predstavlja temeljni resurs suvremenog društva te ima velike strateške važnosti za sva gospodarstva koja se temelje na naftnim derivatima ili na nafti samoj. Svaka nesigurnost, promjena i poremećaj na naftnom tržištu, neovisno o tome je li uzrokovan na strani potražnje ili ponude ima kratkoročne učinke na makroekonomske varijable, ali i dugoročne učinke koji su u ovisnosti o tome koliko dugo sam poremećaj traje. Svijet kakav danas poznajemo predstavlja produkt nafte i njenih derivata. Sva ona gospodarstva koja temelje svoj gospodarski rast na nafti i pratećim industrijama i koja nemaju mogućnosti da se u kratkom vremenu prilagode promjenama i poremećajima na naftnom tržištu, mogu imati velike negativne posljedice. Za gospodarstva koja svoj rast u velikoj mjeri temelje na nafti i pratećoj industriji i koja se ne mogu prilagoditi u kratkom vremenu, poremećaj na naftnom tržištu može imati velike negativne posljedice. Tržište nafte bilo je pogođeno sa nekoliko naftnih poremećaja, a prvi takav dogodio se 1973. godine te je bio uzrokovan Jomkipurskim ratom. Svi naftni šokovi, rezultirali su varijacijama i padovima, te sa promjenama u potražnji ponudi, dok su svjetska gospodarstva morala biti u toku s posljedicama i riješiti probleme cijene nafte kako bi se ona mogla stabilizirati. Naftni šokovi najčešće su bili uzrokovani različitim političkim uzrocima, kao što su to ratovi, a svaki od njih imao je posljedice koje je ostavio na samo gospodarstvo. Čitav napredak u modernoj ekonomiji do samog kraja 19. stoljeća pa do danas, njihovo blagostanje i snaga, ovisili su o nafti i njenom tržištu. Budućnost bi sa sobom trebala donositi tehnološke napretke u čovječanstvu kojima će se postepeno smanjivati ovisnost o nafti i njena potrošnja. Budućnost predviđa kako će nafta kao sirovina gubiti svoju vrijednost onda kada čovječanstvo napusti energetsku ovisnost o nafti. Predmet i cilj ovog diplomskog rada je analiza utjecaja naftnog šoka na vanjskotrgovinsku bilancu EU.Oil, today also known as a black gold, represents the fundamental resource of modern society and has great strategic importance for all economies based on oil derivatives or oil itself. Every uncertainity, change and disturbance in the oil market, regardless of whether it is caused on the demand or supply side, has short-term effects on macroeconomic variables, but also long-term effects. The world as we know it today is a product of oil and its derivatives. All those economies that base their economic growth on oil and related industries and that do not have the ability to adapt in a short time to changes and disruptions in the oil market can have major negative consequences. For economies that largely base their growth on oil and related industries and that cannot adapt in a short time, a disruption in the oil market can have major negative consequences. The oil market was affected by several oil disturbances, the first of which occurred in 1973 and was caused by the Yom Kippur War. All oil shocks resulted in variations and falls, and with changes in demand and supply, while the world's economies had to keep up with the consequences and solve the problems of the oil price so that it could be stabilized. Oil shocks were most often caused by different political causes, such as wars, and each of them had consequences that they left on the economy itself. The entire progress in the modern economy until the very end of the 19th century and until today, their prosperity and strength, depended on oil and its market. The future should bring with it technological advances in humanity, which will gradually reduce dependence on oil and its consumption. The future predicts that oil as a raw material will lose its value when humanity abandons energy dependence on oil. The subject and goal of this graduation thesis is the analysis of the impact of the oil shock on the external trade balance of the EU