Number and height of unbrowsed saplings are more appropriate than the proportion of browsed saplings for predicting silvicultural regeneration success

KEY MESSAGE: The browsing level of oak (Quercus petraea and Quercus robur) and fir (Abies alba) provided only a rough estimate of the expected regeneration success. Thus, it cannot be recommended as a standard measurement to predict forest development, unless the number of saplings and the height of those saplings are considered. CONTEXT: Browsing by large herbivores may affect regeneration success and forest development, with an impact that lasts for decades. AIMS: Whether the browsing level of a tree species can be used in forestry as a standard measure to assess whether the target values (for instance regeneration success) of highly selected tree species, such as oak (Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl., Quercus robur (L.)) and fir (Abies alba (Mill.)), will be reached is unclear and need specification. METHODS: In this study, 985 sampling plots (10 m2) in Southern Germany (Baden-Württemberg) containing browsed and unbrowsed oak and fir-saplings were analysed. Both the browsing level and a measure of the expected regeneration success that considered not only the sapling density but also different height classes (≤ 20 cm; 21–50 cm; 51–130 cm) were calculated. RESULTS: The use of the browsing level as a proxy for the expected regeneration success was statistically only partly justified. For fir the relationship between browsing level and expected regeneration success became even weaker for a new indicator variable which considers two height classes rather than one class for saplings exceeding 50 cm (51–80 cm and 81–130 cm). CONCLUSION: According to these results, the browsing level cannot be recommended as a standard measurement and/or predictor of damage, unless the number of saplings and the height of those saplings are considered. Thus, in efforts to mitigate conflicts between foresters and hunters, a measurement is needed that addresses the successful establishment of a sufficient number of trees despite browsing, rather than the browsing of trees alone