US Financial Expansions and Exchange Rate Determination

The purpose of this thesis is to explore how US financial activity influences the exchange rates of foreign nations. Starting off by building on Currency Hierarchy and Minskyan dynamics, I look at how financial cycles generated in the US, the key economy, transmit liquidity towards economies on the periphery. Additionally, I use the increase in shadow banking asset accumulation relative to commercial banking asset accumulation as indicative of financial expansions in the US, and the driving force of financial cycles. Using vector autoregression (VAR) analysis I test the relationships between the ratio of US shadow banking assets relative to commercial banking assets, portfolio investment liabilities, and the exchange rates for South Korea, Mexico, India and Brazil. I find that US finance has a negative impact on the exchange rates for South Korea, Mexico, and India