Predicting clinical outcomes after radical nephroureterectomy for upper tract urothelial carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Novel prognostic factors for patients after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) have recently been described. OBJECTIVE: We tested the prognostic value of pathologic characteristics and developed models to predict the individual probabilities of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) after RNU. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Our study included 2244 patients treated with RNU without neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy at 23 international institutions. Tumor characteristics included T classification, grade, lymph node status, lymphovascular invasion, tumor architecture, location, and concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS). The cohort was randomly split for development (12 centers, n=1273) and external validation (11 centers, n=971). INTERVENTIONS: All patients underwent RNU. MEASUREMENTS: Univariable and multivariable models addressed RFS, CSS, and comparison of discrimination and calibration with American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage grouping. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: At a median follow-up of 45 mo, 501 patients (22.3%) experienced disease recurrence and 418 patients (18.6%) died of UTUC. On multivariable analysis, T classification (p for trend <0.001), lymph node metastasis (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.98; p=0.002), lymphovascular invasion (HR: 1.66; p<0.001), sessile tumor architecture (HR: 1.76; p<0.001), and concomitant CIS (HR: 1.33; p=0.035) were associated with disease recurrence. Similarly, T classification (p for trend<0.001), lymph node metastasis (HR: 2.23; p=0.001), lymphovascular invasion (HR: 1.81; p