Devising A Procedure to Forecast the Level of Chemical Damage to the Atmosphere During Active Deposition of Dangerous Gases

This paper reports a procedure devised to forecast the level of chemical pollution of the atmosphere, which includes a mathematical model for the distribution of the concentration of dangerous gas in the atmosphere at its active deposition by dispersed jets of liquid, as well as a technique for its implementation. Based on the differential equations of gas distribution in space, a phased model of the propagation of a cloud of a dangerous chemical substance was built. The model describes stages in the discharge of a dangerous gaseous substance from emergency technological equipment, the deposition of dangerous gas by a finely-dispersed flow, and free propagation of the cloud in the air. The reported mathematical model makes it possible to calculate the size of pollution zones while determining the boundary safety conditions. When forecasting, the main meteorological parameters, the width of the deposition zone, and the chemical properties of both the gas and liquid are taken into consideration. The comparative analysis of the results of forecasting a conditional zone of chemical damage with the free propagation of the cloud, and at the active deposition by precipitation or technical devices, was carried out. The simulation results revealed that with an increase in the wind speed from 1 m/s to 5 m/s, the size of the affected area increases by 2.7 times, while the concentration of dangerous gas in the cloud falls by 2.5‒3 times. An algorithm has been proposed for integrating the devised methodology of forecasting the level of chemical pollution of the atmosphere into a general cycle of emergency management. It should be especially noted that the devised procedure contains the entire range of components that are necessary for its practical application. It includes a description of the procedure and practical recommendations for the use of the proposed technique in the elimination of emergencies, as well as a list of probable events when the use of the developed procedure would be most effective