Rule of Law or Luck of the Draw? Extraneous Factors in NC Traffic Stops

This paper examines the most common interaction an American has with the criminal justice system – the traffic stop. It begins with a discussion of the “Rule of Law” and questions whether North Carolina traffic enforcement meets the standard. I then present a novel theoretical model describing the decision-making function of the “bureaucrat” under various levels of discretion based on Kaufman’s seminal exploration of bureaucratic discretion. Next, I explore the impact of factors extraneous to the outcome of a traffic stop. I do so first through a series of visualizations detailing the extent to which these extra-legal factors correlate with lenient outcomes. Then, I utilize maximum likelihood estimation methods to determine how much of the variance in outcomes is explained by each. The differences across departments are estimated to determine 34% of the variance accounted to extraneous inputs, when controlling for other factors. Officer effects account for nearly 67%. Next, I create simulations of hypotheticals to estimate the impact of an individual officer’s preferences. I find that, on average, NC officers individual preferences account for between 35% and 40% of the variance in outcome. Finally, I use a novel technique to compare a department or officer’s year-to-year consistency to a hypothetical world in which they are making random choices that amount to the same total leniency for the violation in question. This approach shows that larger departments are more consistent, that the Highway Patrol outperforms the state average, and that more serious crimes are treated with less extraneous input, or “noise.” The results validate that North Carolina officers are acting with high levels of bureaucratic discretion in this setting and cast serious doubt on whether the “Rule of Law” is predominant in this facet of the criminal justice system. The study introduces novel approaches to the field, which could be used in other investigations of bureaucratic discretion.Bachelor of Art