The More You Owe: Determinants of Sovereign Bond Issuance after Default

This thesis seeks to determine the effects of recent (i.e., 1990-2016) sovereign debt default through primary bond market issuances. Specifically, this thesis aims to address a gap in the literature by examining how bond issuances are affected by a country’s natural resource wealth. I hypothesize that the more natural resources a country has, the less likely they are to issue a bond in a given month. Furthermore, the negative effect of natural resource rents on bond issuance will be more pronounced in autocracies. Using logistic regressions with data from Ballard-Rosa, Mosley, and Wellhausen (2021), I find support for the third hypothesis. When expanding this analysis to include countries that defaulted before 1990 using data from Laeven and Valencia (2018), I find support for the second hypothesis. Finally, I look to see if the effect of natural resource rents changes over time. I find that natural resource wealth increases the likelihood of bond issuance immediately following default, but this effect diminishes over time. These results indicate that more research is necessary, particularly to understand the effects of natural resources on international finance.Bachelor of Art