Prediksi Spasial Perkembangan Lahan Terbangun Di Kawasan Perkotaan Kabupaten Bantul Tahun 2030 Menggunakan MOLUSCE

The phenomenon of built-up land growth in an area indicates if the place is experiencing regional development. Urban areas are areas that have a dynamic level of land cover development, because they are the center where various regional sectors operate. Bantul urban area is one of the areas that experiences this development phenomenon. A stage of monitoring land cover is needed periodically so that the suitability of regional development planning can be realized. One way that can be used is to model the development of land cover in the future, to see a picture of its development. Therefore, this study was conducted with the aim of: 1) Mapping land cover in the urban area of Bantul Regency in 2010 and 2020, 2) Predicting changes in built-up land cover in the urban area of Bantul Regency in 2030, 3) Identifying the spatial direction of development of built-up land in the Bantul Regency Urban Area based on land cover data from 2000-2030. Interpretation of land cover in 2010 and 2020 was carried out by updating the land use data of the 2000 RBI Map with the help of ALOS Imagery in 2010 and Sentinel 2A in 2020. Prediction modeling using the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS with the use of the ANN-MLP (Artificial Neural Network-Multi Layer Perceptron) method. The determination of the direction of spatial development of built-up land is carried out by dividing into four quadrants to see the tendency of the direction of growth. The result of this study is a land cover map of the Bantul urban area in 2010 with an accuracy rate of 94.23% and a map in 2020 with an accuracy rate of 92.31%. The probability of transition modeling the prediction of land cover in 2030 has a cappa value of 0.8 and results in a validation rate of 89.74%. The direction of built-up land development from 2000-2030 is spread in all directions with a growth trend in Quadrant I or towards the northeast with an average increase in built-up land area of 17.59 Km2 per decade