[[alternative]]The Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on the Operation of Large-scale Travel Agencies in Taiwan, Taking Lion Travel and Phoenix Tours as Examples

[[abstract]] 本研究將2019/1/1到2021/12/31區分為6個時期，並以雄獅與鳳凰旅遊為例，使用市值法來探討COVID-19對二家公司營運的影響。 從標準差結果來看，疫情爆發的時期3是COVID-19對雄獅、鳳凰旅遊與台灣上市大盤影響最大的時期。 分析二家公司與台灣上市大盤每日漲跌幅的相關係數，可以得知雄獅與鳳凰旅遊在疫情開始之後，都有高度相關。三者相互間的每日漲跌幅在時期3都有高度的相同趨勢。僅有疫情傳言的時期2，已經開始影響旅行業，但對上市大盤尚未產生明顯影響。 從台灣每日新增確診人數對台股上市大盤指數及雄獅旅遊與鳳凰旅遊股價的迴歸分析可以知道，在時期3有高度的負向關係，之後其他時期的影響就不明顯了。二家公司月營收與收盤價的迴歸分析結果沒有顯著性。[[abstract]] This study divides 2019/1/1 to 2021/12/31 into 6 periods, and uses the market value method to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the operations of the two companies by taking Lion Travel and Phoenix Tourism as examples.Judging from the standard deviation results, period 3 of the outbreak was the period when COVID-19 had the greatest impact on Lions Travel, Phoenix Tours, and the TAIEX(TWSE Capitalization Weighted Stock Index). By analyzing the daily change of the correlation coefficient between the two companies and the TAIEX, we can see that both Lion Travel and Phoenix Tours are highly correlated after the outbreak. The daily change of the three relative to each other all have the same high trend in period 3. Period 2, which is only rumored, has already begun to affect the travel industry, but has not yet had a noticeable impact on the broader market. From the regression analysis of the daily number of newly diagnosed cases in Taiwan on the TAIEX and the stock price of Lion Travel and Phoenix Tours, it can be seen that there is a highly negative relationship in period 3, and the impact in other periods is not obvious. The regression analysis results of the two companies' monthly revenue and closing price are not significant