Prognostic value of variations in serum biomarkers and prognostic scores values between admission and second day in intensive care unit septic patients

Objective: to determinate the prognostic value of procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) changes during the first two days of admission to the ICU with sepsis and/or septic shock, and to compare it with changes in Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) prognostic scores. Methods A single-center prospective observational study was performed. Fifty consecutive patients admitted to the ICU, diagnosed of severe sepsis/septic shock were included. We considered risk factors for infection: diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), previous antibiotic treatment, central intravascular catheter, bladder catheter, active neoplasia. Results Median aged 67(52-75) years with median APACHE-II 19(14-25) points and SOFA scores 7(5-11) points on admission, and 28-day mortality of 42%. When we studied the relationship between mortality and the changes between the day of admission and the second day of the variables studied, we found that APACHE-II (p = 0.001) and SOFA (p = 0.002) between admission and second day raised significantly in no survivors, with no significant changes in CRP and PCT. Multivariate analysis showed that mortality was significantly associated to changes in SOFA score (odds ratio [OR], 2.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-3.86) and to the presence of one or more risk factors for infection (OR, 6.01; 95% CI, 1.01-35.78) but not with PCT changes. Mortality was also related to the variations between the day of admission and the fifth day on APACHE-II (p = 0.002), SOFA (p < 0.001) and PCT (p = 0.012). Conclusions: changes in SOFA and APACHE-II scores between admission and second day in ICU septic patients are more sensitive mortality predictors than the observed changes in CRP and PCT values. Changes in PCT levels between the day of ICU admission and the fifth day are significantly related to mortality and may be useful as an additional marker in patient outcome