Climate trends at a hotspot of chronic kidney disease of unknown causes in Nicaragua, 1973-2014

An ongoing epidemic of chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology (CKDu) afflicts large parts of Central America and is hypothesized to be linked to heat stress at work. Mortality rates from CKDu appear to have increased dramatically since the 1970s. To explore this relationship, we assessed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures during harvest months between 1973 and 2014 as well as in the number of days during the harvest season for which the maximum temperature surpassed 35 °C. Data were collected at a weather station at a Nicaraguan sugar company where large numbers of workers have been affected by CKDu. Monthly averages of the daily maximum temperatures between 1996 and 2014 were also compared to concurrent weather data from eight Automated Surface Observing System Network weather stations across Nicaragua. Our objectives were to assess changes in temperature across harvest seasons, estimate the number of days that workers were at risk of heat-related illness and compare daily maximum temperatures across various sites in Nicaragua. The monthly average daily maximum temperature during the harvest season increased by 0.7 °C per decade between 1973 and 1990. The number of days per harvest season with a maximum temperature over 35 °C increased by approximately five days per year between 1974 and 1990, from 32 days to 114 days. Between 1991 and 2013, the number of harvest days with a maximum temperature over 35 °C decreased by two days per year, and the monthly average daily maximum temperature decreased by 0.3 °C per decade. Comparisons with weather stations across Nicaragua demonstrate that this company is located in one of the consistently hottest regions of the country.MKS and DRB were supported by a grant from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences of the National Institutes of Health (NIH/NIEHS), award number R01 ES027584. ZEP was supported by NIH/NIEHS award numbers T32 ES014562 and F31 ES030974. JB gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements No 865564 (European Research Council Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT) and 727852 (project Blue-Action), and from the Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCIU) under grant agreements No RYC2018-025446-I (programme Ramón y Cajal) and EUR2019-103822 (project EURO-ADAPT). O.R.-R., J.B., and C.O.-G. acknowledge support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019-2023” Program (CEX2018-000806-S) and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. The funding sources had no involvement in the conduct of this research or preparation of this manuscript