Strain Signals Governed by Frictional‐Elastoplastic Interaction of the Upper Plate and Shallow Subduction Megathrust Interface Over Seismic Cycles

The behavior of the shallow portion of the subduction zone, which generates the largest earthquakes and devastating tsunamis, is still insufficiently constrained. Monitoring only a fraction of a single megathrust earthquake cycle and the offshore location of the source of these earthquakes are the foremost reasons for the insufficient understanding. The frictional‐elastoplastic interaction between the megathrust interface and its overlying wedge causes variable surface strain signals such that the wedge strain patterns may reveal the mechanical state of the interface. To contribute to this understanding, we employ Seismotectonic Scale Modeling and simplify elastoplastic megathrust subduction to generate hundreds of analog seismic cycles at a laboratory scale and monitor the surface strain signals over the model's forearc across high to low temporal resolutions. We establish two compressional and critical wedge configurations to explore the mechanical and kinematic interaction between the shallow wedge and the interface. Our results demonstrate that this interaction can partition the wedge into different segments such that the anelastic extensional segment overlays the seismogenic zone at depth. Moreover, the different segments of the wedge may switch their state from compression/extension to extension/compression domains. We highlight that a more segmented upper plate represents megathrust subduction that generates more characteristic and periodic events. Additionally, the strain time series reveals that the strain state may remain quasi‐stable over a few seismic cycles in the coastal zone and then switch to the opposite mode. These observations are crucial for evaluating earthquake‐related morphotectonic markers and short‐term interseismic time series of the coastal regions.Key Points: Analog earthquake cycle experiments provide observations to evaluate the surface strain signals from the shallow megathrust. The extensional segment of the forearc overlays the seismogenic zone at depth. The strain state may remain quasi‐stable over a few seismic cycles in the coastal zone.SUBITOP Marie Sklodowska‐Curie Action project from the European Union's EU Framework ProgrammeDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (CRC 1114) “Scaling Cascades in Complex Systems”https://doi.org/10.5880/fidgeo.2022.01