The Curse of the Difficult Second Book : Continuation and Discontinuation in Early Literary Careers

Among artists who have made their debut, a minority will become credited a second time in their career. This article investigates why some fiction authors continue publishing books while others do not. The study tracks all 1479 novelists, who published their first book between 2001 and 2010 in Sweden, including their literary activities and the literary reception of the book and data on any second book published within eight years after the first book. Regression results indicate that being published by a core publishing house or an established publishing house in the semicore is associated with odds of continuation. Several predictors, about the author, literary activities, and literary reception are tested for career continuation. Some literary activities and notable literary receptions increase the odds of continuation. Market-based performance triumphs aesthetic-based performances in predicting career continuation. For authors being published by a core publishing house, literary activities and reception are important for continuation. These findings are discussed in relation to the opportunity structure associated with the institutional space of publishing houses and suggest a revision of Pierre-Michel Menger's thesis of successes in tournament careers as predicting career continuation