Modulation of Popocatépetl’s activity by regional and worldwide earthquakes

Volcanoes switching from quiescence to eruption shortly after catastrophic earthquakes have raised interest for volcanic triggering and the influence of earthquakes on volcanic activity. Its influence on already active systems and especially at open-vent volcanoes is more difficult to apprehend. A number of recent observations suggest an influence of tectonic earthquakes on Popocatépetl’s activity, the importance of which remains unknown. To further investigate this, we introduce an index, based on the near-field concept, identifying the earthquakes with the highest potential to promote volcanic activity (hereafter termed “significant earthquakes”). The time series of significant earthquakes is compared with the intensity of the volcanic activity, as characterized by the number and energy of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, the number of dome extrusions, the intensity of thermal and degassing fluxes, and ash production. Three main periods with contrasting activity stand out showing that Popocatépetl presents intense activity when significant tectonic earthquakes are frequent. Enhanced extrusion apparently follows significant earthquakes quickly with pulses of dome extrusion that peak after 1.3 ± 0.3 years. Conversely, extrusive activity vanishes when significant seismicity disappears, as during the period 2003–2011, which coincides with a 12-year-long significant seismicity gap. Hence, we propose that the 1994–2022 open-vent activity at Popocatépetl is in part modulated by the repetitive occurrence of significant earthquakes that periodically promote volcanic activity.We thank three anonymous reviewers for their remarks and the editorial handling by N. Metrich and A. Harris that significantly improved the original manuscript. This manuscript also benefitted from constructive discussions with P.J. González. The earthquakes catalogue of the Servicio Sismológico Nacional (Mexico) is possible thanks to its personnel and product of the calculations made by its Analysis and Interpretation of Seismic Data Department. We thank all the personnel of the CENAPRED for realizing the reports. MIROVA is a collaborative project between the Universities of Turin and Florence (Italy). We acknowledge the LANCE-MODIS data system for providing MODIS Near Real-Time products. The manuscript was edited by G. Jones, currently funded by the Cabildo de Tenerife under the TFinnova Programme supported by MEDI and FDCAN funds. TB gratefully acknowledges the invitation of J. Solé at the Noble Gases Geochronology Laboratory of the LANGEM and their fruitful discussions there. TB and NT acknowledge the hospitality and assistance of Rancho del Castillo and D. Belmont during fieldwork campaigns. DL is funded by the PAPIIT project number # IN106019 and SV by the PAPIIT project number #IA102221 and RC by the CONACYT-SEP project number A1-S-30127.Peer reviewe