Global predictions for the risk of establishment of Pierce’s disease of grapevines

The vector-borne bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is responsible for Pierce's disease (PD), a lethal grapevine illness that originated in the Americas. The international plant trade is expanding the geographic range of this pathogen, posing a new threat to viticulture worldwide. To assess the potential incidence of PD, we have built a dynamic epidemiological model based on the response of 36-grapevine varieties to the pathogen in inoculation assays and on the vectors' distribution when this information is available. Key temperature-driven epidemiological processes, such as PD symptom development and recovery, are mechanistically modelled. Integrating into the model high-resolution spatiotemporal climatic data from 1981 onward and different infectivity (R0) scenarios, we show how the main wine-producing areas thrive mostly in non-risk, transient, or epidemic-risk zones with potentially low growth rates in PD incidence. Epidemic-risk zones with moderate to high growth rates are currently marginal outside the United States. However, a global expansion of epidemic-risk zones coupled with small increments in the disease growth rate is projected for 2050. Our study globally downscales the risk of PD establishment while highlighting the importance of considering climate variability, vector distribution and an invasive criterion in obtaining accurate risk maps to guide policy decision-making in plant health.The authors thank the Balearic Islands Official Plant Health Laboratory (LOSVIB) and acknowledge funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through Grants RTI2018-095441-B-C22 (SuMaEco) (AGR and MAM) and RTI2018-093732-B-C22 (PACSS) (JJR) funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by ERDF “A way of making Europe”, MDM-2017-0711 (AGR, JG, JJR and MAM) funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033; The Ministry of Agriculture, Fishery and Food of the Government of the Balearic Islands under Grant (MEPRO 11876/2019). MG received the grant Ayudas a la Atracción de Talento Investigador (Ref: 2018-T2/ BIO-1137) funded by la Comunidad de Madrid.N