SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF USMC HIMARS EMPLOYMENT IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC

As a result of renewed focus on great power competition, the United States Marine Corps is currently undergoing a comprehensive force redesign. In accordance with the Commandant’s Planning Guidance and Force Design 2030, this redesign includes an increase of 14 rocket artillery batteries while divesting 14 cannon artillery batteries. These changes necessitate study into tactics and capabilities for rocket artillery against a peer threat in the Indo-Pacific region. This thesis implements an efficient design of experiments to simulate over 1.6 million Taiwan invasions using a stochastic, agent-based combat model. Varying tactics and capabilities as input, the model returns measures of effectiveness to serve as the response in metamodels, which are then analyzed for critical factors, interactions, and change points. The analysis provides insight into the principal factors affecting lethality and survivability for ground-based rocket fires. The major findings from this study include the need for increasingly distributed artillery formations, highly mobile launchers that can emplace and displace quickly, and the inadequacy of the unitary warheads currently employed by HIMARS units. Solutions robust to adversary actions and simulation variability can inform wargames and future studies as the Marine Corps continues to adapt in preparation for potential peer conflict.Captain, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited