Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?

Several studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have di erential e ects on di erent subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051–2065 and 2085–2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991–2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively, compared to 1991–2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group