Trafficking and Trust: Understanding the role of trust in a criminal supply chain

Trust has been identified in previous research as an important factor in criminals their decision-making when smuggling illegal goods. This research utilizes a case study of the criminal supply chain from South America to the port of Rotterdam, for simulating the relevance of trust in the criminal supply chain using an agent-based model. The agent-based model is able to simulate criminal decisions according to two decision-making models: (1) the risk vs. gain trade-off, and (2) transaction-cost theory. Interpersonal trust affects these trade-offs by minimizing risks and costs. The results show an insignificance of trust in the criminal supply chain for certain parameterizations of the model, when gains are relatively high compared to risks and/or costs. Different levels of trust have no effect on overal criminal supply chain performance. Furthermore, the results highlight the possibility of indirectly undermining trust within criminal networks when applying supply chain interventions, that hinder the smuggle of illegal goods. This implicates a possible reinforcing effect of supply chain interventions through the trust channel, on disrupting criminal supply chains when gains, risks, and costs are more in balance.Engineering and Policy Analysi