Моделювання впливу освіти та ВВП на рівень вакцинації населення (Modelling the Impact of Education and GDP on Vaccination Rate)

У статті розглянуто пандемію COVID-19 як фактор впливу на розвиток світової економіки. Здійснено аналіз взаємозв’язку рівня вакцинації та основних макроекономічних показників, зокрема рівень освіти та ВВП на душу населення, серед 47 країн світу станом на грудень 2021 року. Запропоновано модель впливу освіти та ВВП на рівень вакцинації населення. Встановлено прямий зв’язок між рівнем вакцинації та індексом людського розвитку. (The article notes the relationship between the economic growth and crisis caused by COVID-19. A comparison of world GDP growth rates since 1996 till 2020 is made. The main economic indicators in Ukraine are analyzed, the dynamics of which confirm the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth. The impact of the pandemic on small and medium-sized businesses is reflected. The dynamics of the global PMI indicator as an indicator that characterizes the state of the economy in the manufacturing sector is analyzed. Emphasis is placed on the role of vaccination in stabilizing world economies. Besides, the level of vaccination in Ukraine is analyzed in comparison with European countries. It is found that the highest level of vaccination is in Western Europe. The need for the analysis of high levels vaccination determinants is substantiated. The purpose of the article is to analyze the association of COVID-19 vaccination rate and macro-socioeconomic measures, in particular gross domestical product and human development index, using a daily database of vaccinations for a sample of 47 countries over the period January 2020 to December 2021. In order to largely capture the vaccination determinants, we also included population density, number of hospital beds, prevalence of diabetes, number of people of retirement age and life expectancy. Examining the regressors of vaccination rates, we find a strong effect of human development index. Identifying the problem of endogeneity in the model, we also find evidence of an unexpected impact of GDP per capita on vaccination rates through the level of education. Finally, the results confirm the hypotheses that education is relevant for campaign expansion, and financial strength of economies is forcing them to higher vaccination rates.