Evaluating the Bayesian inference using synthetic data.

Using the model described in the main text, we generate synthetic data for given model parameters. Using this synthetic data, we then infer the model parameters using the Bayesian inference. The original parameters are plotted as crosses (true), while the inferred results are plotted as lines or circles with confidence intervals (predictions). In (A), the parameter k for the negative binomial distribution is shown. In (B), the relative strength of the reporting probabilities of secondary infections (DENV-1) compared with primary infections (DENV-1) φ(1,2)/φ(1,1) is shown. In (C), the reporting probabilities relative to serotype 1, φ(i,1)/φ(i,1) for primary infections and φ(i,2)/φ(i,2) for secondary infections, are shown. Here i = 1,2,3,4 corresponds to DENV-i. In (D), the reporting probability of primary infections by DENV-1 T(t) is shown as a function of time. In (E), the age-factor of the reporting probability A(a) is shown. In (F), the FOI is shown as a function of time.