How accurately can behavioral scientists predict behavior? To answer this question, we analyzed data from five studies in which 640 professional behavioral scientists predicted the results of one or more behavioral science experiments. We compared the behavioral scientists' predictions to random chance, linear models, and simple heuristics like "behavioral interventions have no effect" and "all published psychology research is false." We find that behavioral scientists are consistently no better than - and often worse than - these simple heuristics and models. Behavioral scientists' predictions are not only noisy but also biased. They systematically overestimate how well behavioral science "works": overestimating the effectiveness of behavi...
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their prediction...
Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed co...
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices Are those who are familiar with scientific re...
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predict...
According to rational choice theory, people will choose their careers, level of work effort or inves...
Four experiments demonstrate that self-knowledge provides a mixed blessing in behavioral prediction,...
We measure how accurately replication of experimental results can be predicted by black-box statisti...
Economists and psychologists have recently been developing new theories of decision making under unc...
Comments on Rodgers (2010a, 2010b) and Robinson and Levin (2010) are presented. Rodgers (2010a) init...
Observational data about human behavior is often heterogeneous, i.e., generated by subgroups within ...
We measure how accurately replication of experimental results can be predicted by black-box statisti...
Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed co...
Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed co...
Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed co...
Background: Behavioral scientists suggest that for behavior change interventions to work effectively...
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their prediction...
Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed co...
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices Are those who are familiar with scientific re...
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predict...
According to rational choice theory, people will choose their careers, level of work effort or inves...
Four experiments demonstrate that self-knowledge provides a mixed blessing in behavioral prediction,...
We measure how accurately replication of experimental results can be predicted by black-box statisti...
Economists and psychologists have recently been developing new theories of decision making under unc...
Comments on Rodgers (2010a, 2010b) and Robinson and Levin (2010) are presented. Rodgers (2010a) init...
Observational data about human behavior is often heterogeneous, i.e., generated by subgroups within ...
We measure how accurately replication of experimental results can be predicted by black-box statisti...
Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed co...
Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed co...
Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed co...
Background: Behavioral scientists suggest that for behavior change interventions to work effectively...
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their prediction...
Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed co...
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices Are those who are familiar with scientific re...