Estimating the economic viability of Advanced Air Mobility use cases: towards the slope of enlightenment (Abstract)

In line with the Gartner Hype Cycle the perception of advanced air mobility (AAM) is already fading before the continuous market entry phase begins. In this time, there are many projects focused on the development of new vehicle configurations and designs. But most of the available funding is concentrated on a few vehicle projects. It seems that the competition between several manufactures is more present than ever and the manufacturer are taking positions in different use cases. Plenty of use cases consider some sort of electromobility and a passenger load of less than 20. The adaptation of the optimal vehicle concept to its application is not yet complete. This study examines the most common use cases for the Hamburg area and northern Germany. Each use case consists of a combination of vehicle capabilities, its range and its approach and landing abilities. Furthermore, the operating costs and the potential revenue for an itinerary are examined. By varying different cost parameters, the economic viability is evaluated. Each use case is evaluated in comparison to conventional means of transport such as a private car or a public transport service. As implied before, sensitivity studies are computed for three use cases: • Intra City, which is an itinerary within the Hamburg metropolitan area • Airport Shuttle, which is an itinerary from the Hamburg City to Hamburg Airport • Regional AAM, which is an itinerary between Hamburg City Center and Sylt For its investigation, a trajectory simulation is used to calculate the flight duration and the energy required for the respective travel route. For the prediction of flight profiles regarding flight duration, vertical and horizontal velocities, altitudes as well as the mission specific consumed energy, a trajectory calculation is carried out based on a point mass moving according to Newton’s laws. The projected flight trajectory is set over rural area as possible. Other inputs to the operating cost model cannot be predicted by the proposed calculation. Existing models of manned aviation are adapted to an AAM system in order to model the necessary inputs. This study expects different operating cost characteristics for each use case. Not only does the sum of the cost parameters vary, but the percentage of the parameters also varies for each use case. By following this approach and assessing the sensitivity of each cost parameter, an extremely valuable cost input can be found. The profitability of each use case is analyzed regarding its cost incurred as well as different passenger segments and ticket prices. Therefore, the operating costs need to be escalated to total cost of ownership to determine realistic costs of running an AAM system and therefore necessary ticket prices