Important predictors of outcome and accuracy of prediction for different time-lags.

(A) Identification of top-10 predictive variables affecting Rt estimation. (B) Top-10 most contributing features for residential mobility estimation. SHAP analysis in A and B is based on predictions using a time-lag of 7 days. Each dot represents a single data sample in the validation set (i.e., country at a date). The dot color represents the feature value (red = high, blue = low). The farther a dot is from 0 on the x-axis, the more effect (positive or negative) this feature had on the prediction model for this particular sample. (C) Model performance (log of normalized MSE) of Rt (solid dark blue line) and residential mobility (solid green lines) in the validation set for different time lags. The dashed lines of the same color correspond to random prediction derived by permutation tests with their respective models. Both models significantly outperformed random prediction.