A data-driven disease progression model of fluid biomarkers in genetic frontotemporal dementia

Supplementary material: Supplementary material is available at Brain online: https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/brain/145/5/10.1093_brain_awab382/1/awab382_supplementary_data.zip?Expires=1665139578&Signature=C7VStQxldRqnpcchAWh4igaKwveciF~gaQCbInqMnI1YkIFV0euPXlI-0ZlRZ26hbRum6myjm88d3KzOM-wqVG~H7JO9TTUXoyi-n3hRRd1a4Vw0Hay9ykagca92gMqWij5ax4WzsEGlv~dKGSKKivH02pflzQyDAwF6xjjObYRYe29grdOZQ5h8orT6XNAdK5YFqpiX7L6mpVaNs7AOgNDdxtwshaa4kq1xxCgojTgAaIR3WFTFDpHkJ6wnhncxuteykTzq5~w1RCoDIfKQSA9C42i~iWryOeOvjv-P6j-R0tSkDGzFKcI3kUo3lUT9GiPG-vDwAO5EsLkUikJLOw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA.GENFI consortium members Full details are available in the Supplementary material. Sónia Afonso, Maria Rosario Almeida, Sarah Anderl-Straub, Christin Andersson, Anna Antonell, Silvana Archetti, Andrea Arighi, Mircea Balasa, Myriam Barandiaran, Nuria Bargalló, Robart Bartha, Benjamin Bender, Alberto Benussi, Luisa Benussi, Valentina Bessi, Giuliano Binetti, Sandra Black, Martina Bocchetta, Sergi Borrego-Ecija, Jose Bras, Rose Bruffaerts, Marta Cañada, Valentina Cantoni, Paola Caroppo, David Cash, Miguel Castelo-Branco, Rhian Convery, Thomas Cope, Giuseppe Di Fede, Alina Díez, Diana Duro, Chiara Fenoglio, Camilla Ferrari, Catarina B. Ferreira, Nick Fox, Morris Freedman, Giorgio Fumagalli, Alazne Gabilondo, Roberto Gasparotti, Serge Gauthier, Stefano Gazzina, Giorgio Giaccone, Ana Gorostidi, Caroline Greaves, Rita Guerreiro, Tobias Hoegen, Begoña Indakoetxea, Vesna Jelic, Hans-Otto Karnath, Ron Keren, Tobias Langheinrich, Maria João Leitão, Albert Lladó, Gemma Lombardi, Sandra Loosli, Carolina Maruta, Simon Mead, Gabriel Miltenberger, Rick van Minkelen, Sara Mitchell, Katrina Moore, Benedetta Nacmias, Jennifer Nicholas, Linn Öijerstedt, Jaume Olives, Sebastien Ourselin, Alessandro Padovani, Georgia Peakman, Michela Pievani, Yolande Pijnenburg, Cristina Polito, Enrico Premi, Sara Prioni, Catharina Prix, Rosa Rademakers, Veronica Redaelli, Tim Rittman, Ekaterina Rogaeva, Pedro Rosa-Neto, Giacomina Rossi, Martin Rosser, Beatriz Santiago, Elio Scarpini, Sonja Schönecker, Elisa Semler, Rachelle Shafei, Christen Shoesmith, Miguel Tábuas-Pereira, Mikel Tainta, Ricardo Taipa, David Tang-Wai, David L Thomas, Paul Thompson, Hakan Thonberg, Carolyn Timberlake, Pietro Tiraboschi, Emily Todd, Philip Van Damme, Mathieu Vandenbulcke, Michele Veldsman, Ana Verdelho, Jorge Villanua, Jason Warren, Ione Woollacott, Elisabeth Wlasich, Miren Zulaica.Copyright © The Author(s) 2021. Several CSF and blood biomarkers for genetic frontotemporal dementia have been proposed, including those reflecting neuroaxonal loss (neurofilament light chain and phosphorylated neurofilament heavy chain), synapse dysfunction [neuronal pentraxin 2 (NPTX2)], astrogliosis (glial fibrillary acidic protein) and complement activation (C1q, C3b). Determining the sequence in which biomarkers become abnormal over the course of disease could facilitate disease staging and help identify mutation carriers with prodromal or early-stage frontotemporal dementia, which is especially important as pharmaceutical trials emerge. We aimed to model the sequence of biomarker abnormalities in presymptomatic and symptomatic genetic frontotemporal dementia using cross-sectional data from the Genetic Frontotemporal dementia Initiative (GENFI), a longitudinal cohort study. Two-hundred and seventy-five presymptomatic and 127 symptomatic carriers of mutations in GRN, C9orf72 or MAPT, as well as 247 non-carriers, were selected from the GENFI cohort based on availability of one or more of the aforementioned biomarkers. Nine presymptomatic carriers developed symptoms within 18 months of sample collection ('converters'). Sequences of biomarker abnormalities were modelled for the entire group using discriminative event-based modelling (DEBM) and for each genetic subgroup using co-initialized DEBM. These models estimate probabilistic biomarker abnormalities in a data-driven way and do not rely on previous diagnostic information or biomarker cut-off points. Using cross-validation, subjects were subsequently assigned a disease stage based on their position along the disease progression timeline. CSF NPTX2 was the first biomarker to become abnormal, followed by blood and CSF neurofilament light chain, blood phosphorylated neurofilament heavy chain, blood glial fibrillary acidic protein and finally CSF C3b and C1q. Biomarker orderings did not differ significantly between genetic subgroups, but more uncertainty was noted in the C9orf72 and MAPT groups than for GRN. Estimated disease stages could distinguish symptomatic from presymptomatic carriers and non-carriers with areas under the curve of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.89) and 0.90 (0.86-0.94) respectively. The areas under the curve to distinguish converters from non-converting presymptomatic carriers was 0.85 (0.75-0.95). Our data-driven model of genetic frontotemporal dementia revealed that NPTX2 and neurofilament light chain are the earliest to change among the selected biomarkers. Further research should investigate their utility as candidate selection tools for pharmaceutical trials. The model's ability to accurately estimate individual disease stages could improve patient stratification and track the efficacy of therapeutic interventions.Deltaplan Dementie (The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development and Alzheimer Nederland; grant numbers 733050813,733050103 and 733050513), the Bluefield Project to Cure Frontotemporal Dementia, the Dioraphte founda tion (grant number 1402 1300), the European Joint Programme— Neurodegenerative Disease Research and the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (PreFrontALS: 733051042, RiMod-FTD: 733051024); V.V. and S.K. have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and in novation programme under grant agreement no. 666992 (EuroPOND). E.B. was supported by the Hartstichting (PPP Allowance, 2018B011); in Belgium by the Mady Browaeys Fonds voor Onderzoek naar Frontotemporale Degeneratie; in the UK by the MRC UK GENFI grant (MR/M023664/1); J.D.R. is supported by an MRC Clinician Scientist Fellowship (MR/M008525/1) and has received funding from the NIHR Rare Disease Translational Research Collaboration (BRC149/NS/MH); I.J.S. is supported by the Alzheimer’s Association; J.B.R. is supported by the Wellcome Trust (103838); in Spain by the Fundacio´ Marato´ de TV3 (20143810 to R.S.V.); in Germany by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy within the framework of the Munich Cluster for Systems Neurology (EXC 2145 SyNergy—ID 390857198) and by grant 779357 ‘Solve-RD’ from the Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (to MS); in Sweden by grants from the Swedish FTD Initiative funded by the Scho¨rling Foundation, grants from JPND PreFrontALS Swedish Research Council (VR) 529–2014-7504, Swedish Research Council (VR) 2015–02926, Swedish Research Council (VR) 2018–02754, Swedish Brain Foundation, Swedish Alzheimer Foundation, Stockholm County Council ALF, Swedish Demensfonden, Stohnes foundation, Gamla Tja¨narinnor, Karolinska Institutet Doctoral Funding and StratNeuro. H.Z. is a Wallenberg Scholar