Predictability of bleaching severity immediately after heat stress (Day 0 post-stress) for survival.

(A) Scatterplot showcasing sample bleaching severity on Day 0 versus Day 7 post-stress (based on visual bleaching score, VBS, and with bleaching severity categories), including a line of best fit with 95% confidence intervals (linear regression). A linear mixed effects model was used, with reef region as a random intercept to account for spatial variability, and the marginal R2 value is provided. (B) Percentages, per bleaching severity group, of heat stressed genets with total tissue mortality daily from Day 0 to Day 7 post-stress and at the one month (~30 days) and two months (~60 days) timepoints. Mortality during the heat stress experiment (n = 13 genets) was attributed to the high bleaching severity category (i.e., low heat resistance), and severely bleached genets that died throughout the post-stress week were added to this count. The solid vertical line indicates the day by which 50% of all observed mortality was surpassed, and the dotted vertical line separates the short term (Days 0–7) and longer term (Days ~30 and ~60) post-stress periods. (C) Binomial representation of living (value = 0) and dead (value = 1) genets 2 months after heat stress versus bleaching severity on Day 0 post-stress, where circle sizes represent proportion of living vs. dead genets at each VBS category (mixed effects logistic regression, accounting for spatial variability, and the pseudo R2 value is provided). Circle colors correspond to bleaching severity immediately after heat stress: blue = low bleaching, yellow = moderate bleaching, and red = high bleaching.