Population Projections for Barton County: 1995 to 2030

he Mid-Kansas Economic Development Commission contacted the Kansas Center for Community Economic Development (KCCED) at the University of Kansas in March 1995 to discuss the possibility of KCCED developing population projections for Barton County. The Commission was concerned that, given the recent job growth experienced in the county, the projections developed in 1992 by the Division of the Budget for the State of Kansas 1 overestimated future population loss for Barton County. As illustrated by Map 1, over half of the counties in Kansas had estimated population losses from 1990 to 1994. Barton County's estimated population loss was 486. However, since 1988, Barton County has seen an increase in job growth (Figure 1). This increase in job growth may help to slow the amount of population loss in Barton County. KCCED concurred with the Mid-Kansas Development Commission that projected out­migration may have been overestimated for Barton County and agreed to develop new projections for Barton County based on an established method that would include population trends, migration patterns, births and deaths. The following report discusses the results of KCCED's efforts, which includes the methodology employed, the projections, and a comparison with the State's projections