Accurate phenology analyses require bud traits and energy budgets

Phenology studies tend to use air temperature instead of plant tissue temperature. This study provides evidence that air and plant temperatures differ to such an extent as to make us reconsider our current interpretation of phenology. Spring phenology is mainly driven by temperature in extratropical ecosystems. Recent evidence highlighted the key role of micrometeorology and bud temperature on delaying or advancing leaf unfolding. Yet, phenology studies, either using ground-based or remote sensing observations, always substitute plant tissue temperature by air temperature. In fact, temperatures differ substantially between plant tissues and the air because plants absorb and lose energy. Here, we build on recent observations and well-established energy balance theories to discuss how solar radiation, wind and bud traits might affect our interpretation of spring phenology sensitivity to warming. We show that air temperature might be an imprecise and biased predictor of bud temperature. Better characterizing the plants' phenological response to warming will require new observations of bud traits and temperature for accurately quantifying their energy budget. As consistent micrometeorology datasets are still scarce, new approaches coupling energy budget modelling and plant traits could help to improve phenology analyses across scales