Quantifying the Impacts of Sanctions Following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

https://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/hosoe_nobuhiro/We use a computable general equilibrium model of world trade to quantify the possible impact of economic sanctions imposed by the Western and other countries in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If senders chose 100% import tariffs and export taxes on trade with Russia, Russia’s GDP would decline by 3-7% due to a significant reduction in exports. By contrast, the GDP loss for those countries would be the largest for Europe but only about 0.2%, and 0.05% for Japan. The effect of China’s participation in the sanctions is more significant than that of India. There are concerns about food and energy crises due to economic sanctions against Russia, but food supplies would not be a serious problem for either senders or third parties. The impact on energy supplies would affect all senders to some extent, for example with a reduction of energy consumption by 3% in and a rise in electricity and town gas prices by 3-4% in Japan.The author gratefully acknowledges that this research was supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (No. 19K01622).technical repor