Rapid human-driven undermining of atoll island capacity to adjust to ocean climate-related pressures

International audienceMost studies addressing the future of atoll islands focused on ocean-climate drivers of risk, especiallysea-level rise, and disregarded the role of local human disturbances. However, the future habitabilityof these countries will critically depend on the response of inhabited and exploited islands to oceanclimatepressures. Here, using the Maldives as a case study and based on a database including 608islands (representing 56.8% and 86.0% of the country’s land area and population, respectively),we assess the influence of human disturbances on island natural response capacity over the lastdecade. We show that over the last decade, island change was rapid and primarily controlled byanthropogenic drivers. the great majority of inhabited and exploited islands now exhibit an alteredto-annihilated capacity to respond to ocean-climate pressures, which has major implications for futureresearch and adaptation strategies. first, future studies should consider not only climate, but alsoanthropogenic tipping points (in contrast to climate tipping points). Second, adaptation strategiesmust be implemented without delay, despite climate uncertainties, in order to contain any additionaldetrimental path-dependency effects. This study provides critical information for better addressing theattribution issue under climate change, and a replicable rapid assessment frame