Incorporating Beliefs and Experiences into Choice Experiment Analysis: Implications for the National Park Service

We show that respondents\u27 beliefs about future outcomes and prior recreational experiences affect policy recommendations from choice experiments. For New England residents, we find that willingness to pay for a new national park in Maine differs based on respondents\u27 stated beliefs about the status quo long-term land use. We also find that respondents who do (do not) hunt or snowmobile would pay significantly more (less) for a park allowing these activities. Land managers may find a two-park solution (one allowing the activities and one prohibiting them) would be best; this insight would be missed when neglecting to model conflicting recreational preferences