Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%?30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions?transport, climate change and socio-economic change?were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.Fil: Essl, Franz. Universidad de Viena; Austria. Stellenbosch University;Fil: Lenzner, Bernd. Universidad de Viena; AustriaFil: Bacher, Sven. University of Fribourg; SuizaFil: Bailey, Sarah. Great Lakes Laboratory For Fisheries An Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries And Oceans Canada; CanadáFil: Capinha, Cesar. Universidade Nova de Lisboa; PortugalFil: Daehler, Curtis. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados UnidosFil: Dullinger, Stefan. Universidad de Viena; AustriaFil: Genovesi, Piero. Institute for Environmental Protection and Research; Italia. Stellenbosch University; . Iucn Ssc Invasive Species Specialist Group; ItaliaFil: Hui, Cang. Stellenbosch University; . African Institute for Mathematical Sciences; Sudáfrica. International Initiative for Theoretical Ecology; Reino UnidoFil: Hulme, Philip E.. Lincoln University.; Nueva ZelandaFil: Jeschke, Jonathan M.. Leibniz - Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries; Alemania. Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research; Alemania. Freie Universität Berlin; AlemaniaFil: Katsanevakis, Stelios. University of the Aegean; GreciaFil: Kühn, Ingolf. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; Alemania. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research; Alemania. Martin Luther University Halle; AlemaniaFil: Leung, Brian. Université Mcgill; CanadáFil: Liebhold, Andrew. US Forest Service Northern Research Station; Estados Unidos. Czech University of Life Sciences; República ChecaFil: Liu, Chunlong. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China. Leibniz - Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries; Alemania. Freie Universität Berlin; AlemaniaFil: MacIsaac, Hugh J.. Great Lakes Institute For Environmental Research; CanadáFil: Meyerson, Laura A.. The University of Rhode Island; Estados UnidosFil: Nuñez, Martin Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones En Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Subsede San Martín de Los Andes-inibioma | Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universitario Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones En Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Subsede San Martín de Los Andes-inibioma.; ArgentinaFil: Pauchard, Aníbal. Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad; Chile. Universidad de Concepción; ChileFil: Pyšek, Petr. Charles University; República Checa. Czech Academy of Sciences;Fil: Rabitsch, Wolfgang. Environment Agency Austria; AustriaFil: Richardson, David M.. Stellenbosch University;Fil: Roy, Helen Elizabeth. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: Ruiz, Gregory M.. Smithsonian Environmental Research Center;Fil: Russell, James C.. University of Auckland; Nueva ZelandaFil: Sanders, Nathan J.. University of Vermont; Estados UnidosFil: Sax, Dov F.. University Brown; Estados UnidosFil: Scalera, Riccardo. Iucn Ssc Invasive Species Specialist Group; ItaliaFil: Seebens, Hanno. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaFil: Springborn, Michael. University of California at Davis; Estados UnidosFil: Turbelin, Anna. Universite Paris-saclay; Francia. King's College London; Reino UnidoFil: van Kleunen, Mark. Universität Konstanz; Alemania. Taizhou University; ChinaFil: von Holle, Betsy. National Science Foundation; Estados UnidosFil: Winter, Marten. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research; AlemaniaFil: Zenni, Rafael D.. Universidad Federal de Lavras; BrasilFil: Mattsson, Brady J.. Universitat Fur Bodenkultur Wien; AustriaFil: Roura Pascual, Nuria. Universidad de Girona; Españ