Evaluating South Africa’s Post-Apartheid Democratic Prospects Through the Lens of Economic Development Theory

olitical scientists have identified compelling correlations between economic development and democratic stability. In general, the wealthier and more developed a country, the greater its chances of maintaining a long-term, stable democracy. This Article evaluates whether South Africa’s post-apartheid economic conditions are trending towards conditions that generally correlate to stable democracies. It compares South Africa’s post-apartheid economic conditions to the empirical trends that development theorists have identified as correlative to democratic stability. This analysis is important because if South Africa’s post-apartheid economic conditions do not exhibit positive trends, this may suggest that despite the just end of apartheid, conditions are becoming progressively more difficult for South Africa to maintain a democratic government. The Article finds that South Africa is exhibiting positive trends in relevant criteria such as levels of per capita income, education, urbanization, industrialization, and cumulative economic growth. The one exception is income inequality, which has remained constant and extremely high since the fall of apartheid. The Article reveals, however, that there have been various qualitative improvements in the nature of income inequality since the end of apartheid, which suggests that necessary quantitative improvements may be on the horizon. With that one notable caveat, the Article concludes that South Africa’s democratic prospects appear bright when viewed through the lens of economic development