ADULTS NEWLY INFECTED WITH HIV IN GHANA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Using annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Ghana from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2030. The study employs the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the D series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Using the AIC as the best model evaluation criteria, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated but rather normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults will slightly rise from the estimated 16818 new infections in 2019 to almost 17814 new infections by 2030. On this trajectory, Ghana cannot achieve her ambitious goal of ending the HIV epidemic by 2030. The study generally recommends that the government of Ghana should scale up HIV prevention and treatment access; with special emphasis on behavior change interventions such as increased condom use and reduction of sexual partners