HIV/AIDS ON THE INCREASE IN PAKISTAN: A STERN WARNING FROM THE BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Pakistan is now a “highly concentrated” epidemic country. This simply implies higher incidence of HIV among high risk groups in the country, for example, injecting drug users and commercial sex workers. There is a silent and yet serious escalation of new HIV infections especially in adults in Pakistan. Using annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Pakistan from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2030. The study employs the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the F series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is stable and acceptable. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Pakistan is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory, over the period 2019 – 2030, from approximately 20718 in 2019 to about 28532 new infections by 2030