The influence of perceived COVID-19 risk on the modal-split for long-distance travel in Europe: A Hierarchical Information Integration and Stated-Preference study approach

COVID-19 had (and still has) a huge impact on travel behaviour. Most research on the effects of COVID-19 on travel behaviour is based on daily travel behaviour. Long-distance travel is most of the time not included. Therefore, this paper studies the impact of perceived COVID-19 risk on mode-choice for long-distance travel in Europe. This paper uses a Stated-Preference approach which consists of two parts, the perceived risk rating experiment and the main mode choice experiment. In total1147 responses were collected. In the rating experiment, respondents rated their perceived risk based on eight attributes. In the main choice experiment, respondents chose between train, plane and care based on travel time, travel cost, travel comfort and perceived risk. With this,the Value of Risk (VoR) for a decrease in perceived risk is derived, both expressed in travel cost and travel comfort. Moreover, the Willingness to Pay (WtP) for comfort and Value of Time (VoT) are derived. With the combination of both models, the WtP for risk attributes given a perceived risk level is derived. The combination of both models shows the Willingness to Pay values for the different risk attributes, given a certain perceived risk level. To test the influence of perceived risk on modal split, three routes with real-world values are used. The results implicate a maximum of 5% market share difference possible. This shows that perceived COVID-19 has a moderate effect on modal split.Transport, Infrastructure and Logistic